The bond market’s about to do something it hasn’t done in nearly four decades: Louise Yamada

Investing


The bond market’s entering a whole new cycle that would mark the end its decadeslong bull market.

That’s according to veteran technician Louise Yamada, whose chart work suggests that a bond breakdown could be in the near future.

First, Yamada, managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, pointed to a more-than-200-year chart of U.S. interest rates to explain the longer-term trend for interest rates.

“The last rising rates cycle was from 1946 to 1981, and from 1981 forward to today, we’ve been in a falling rate cycle,” she said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now,” making the point that the typical 37-year cycle was over and rates were now beginning to enter a rising rate cycle.

This is most obvious with the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, said Yamada. “When [the two-year note] went through 1.5 percent, it broke out of a nine-year base,” she explained. “And we’ve been suggesting that breakout is indicative of a reversal from a falling rate cycle into a rising rate cycle, which could last one or two decades.”

In other words, history and current technicals indicate to Yamada that rates will just keep rising, meaning that bond prices themselves could start to fall. But the end result could be positive for the market.

“If we see tax reform doing better for a lot of companies, I think that you could continue to see a corresponding rise in yields along with an economic improvement,” she said. “That’s not to say there wouldn’t be pullbacks because there will be, we haven’t seen one in a long time, but I think that you could see rates go easily through 3 percent.”

And that 3 percent mark, according to Yamada, would be the definitive level indicating that bonds are in a rising rate cycle.

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered at around 2.44 percent.



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